Institutional capacity ↑ · institutional

Scientific accumulation

The field does not yet know enough about AI to choose a strategy well, so accelerating the science accelerates eventual policy.

Mechanism

Build interpretability, evaluation, and formal methods as a body of understanding without committing to any specific policy intervention.

Coordinates

Primary leverInstitutional capacity (Build)

Acts oninstitutional

Coercionconsent

Actor in controlhumans

Time horizonpre transition

Legitimacy sourcetechnical

Conflicts, grouped by mechanism

No strict conflicts catalogued. This strategy pulls a lever that nothing else pulls in the opposite direction.

Complements, grouped by mechanism

Cross-side bridge

one AI-side, one world-side

One acts on the model, the other on institutions or culture. The bridge hedges against both artefact-level and substrate-level failure.

Interpretability firstAlignment first

Same-side diversification

same side, different lever

Both act on the same side (AI or world) but pull distinct levers. They cover several failure modes on that side while leaving the other side uncovered.

Portfolio hedge

Same phase, different layer

same stage, distinct levers

Both are active in the same phase of the transition but act on different layers (model vs institution vs culture). They cover different failure modes inside the same window.

Voluntary restraint

Same-lever twins

Both use the same lever in the same direction. Usually redundant inside a portfolio: each dollar or effort unit only buys one lever pull, even if two strategies are named.

Academic firewallingtwinAI worker collective actiontwinArms control treatytwinCriminal liabilitytwinGovernance firsttwinInsurance mandatetwinInternational AI agencytwinLiability driven safetytwinRegulated utilitytwin

Axis position

What the strategy acts onInstitutional

Coercion levelConsent

Actor in controlHumans as principals

Time horizonPre-transition

Legitimacy sourceTechnical

Source note: Scientific accumulation strategy.md