Institutional capacity ↑ · market economic

Insurance mandate

Markets update faster than regulators and have skin in the game; mandatory catastrophic coverage makes reinsurance the de facto safety regulator.

Mechanism

Require catastrophic insurance coverage for AI systems above a capability threshold, forcing probabilistic risk pricing.

Falsification signal

A large AI loss triggers insurer exit rather than tighter safety requirements.

A strategy held without a falsification signal is not strategy; it is affiliation. Continued support after this signal lands is identity, not bet. See the identity diagnostic.

Self-undermining threshold

overshoot risk

At catastrophic scale beyond reinsurance capacity.

Triggers market exit rather than tighter safety requirements.

Every strategy has a stable region where it reinforces itself and an unstable region where pursuit defeats it. The threshold between them is usually narrower than advocates acknowledge.

Historical analogue

Financial regulation · Capital requirements / stress tests

Every strategy inherits a plausible ceiling from its precedent. The analogue conditions the realistic reach.

Produced

Reduced routine failure frequency.

Did not produce

Systemic failures still occur (2008); novel conditions exceed the regime.

Addresses 1 failure scenario

all scenarios →

Evaluation abandonment under pressure

Coordinates

Primary leverInstitutional capacity (Build)

Acts onmarket economic

Coercionstate coercion

Actor in controlhumans

Time horizonhorizon neutral

Legitimacy sourcemarket

Conflicts, grouped by mechanism

No strict conflicts catalogued. This strategy pulls a lever that nothing else pulls in the opposite direction.

Complements, grouped by mechanism

Same-lever reinforce

same lever, same pull, different mechanism

Both strategies pull the same lever in the same direction by different means. They stack: doing both amplifies the pull, at the cost of double-counting in portfolio audits.

Liability driven safetyGovernance firstCriminal liability

Cross-side bridge

one AI-side, one world-side

One acts on the model, the other on institutions or culture. The bridge hedges against both artefact-level and substrate-level failure.

Red line capability

Same-lever twins

Both use the same lever in the same direction. Usually redundant inside a portfolio: each dollar or effort unit only buys one lever pull, even if two strategies are named.

Academic firewallingtwinAI worker collective actiontwinArms control treatytwinInternational AI agencytwinRegulated utilitytwinScientific accumulationtwin

Axis position

What the strategy acts onMarket / economic

Coercion levelState coercion

Actor in controlHumans as principals

Time horizonHorizon-neutral

Legitimacy sourceMarket

Source note: Insurance mandate strategy.md