Resilience ↑ · non preventive

Portfolio hedge

Uncertainty about which strategy family's bet is correct exceeds the expected return from concentrating on any single one.

Mechanism

Spread effort across alignment, governance, resilience, and distribution rather than committing to a single theory of change.

If it succeeds: what binds next

Multiple strategies partially succeed. Coordination between them becomes the binding constraint, since they were not designed to compose.

A strategy that produces a worse next problem than the one it solved has not done durable work.

Coordinates

Primary leverResilience (Strengthen)

Acts onnon preventive

Coercionconsent

Actor in controlhumans

Time horizonhorizon neutral

Legitimacy sourcemixed

Conflicts, grouped by mechanism

No strict conflicts catalogued. This strategy pulls a lever that nothing else pulls in the opposite direction.

Complements, grouped by mechanism

Same-lever reinforce

same lever, same pull, different mechanism

Both strategies pull the same lever in the same direction by different means. They stack: doing both amplifies the pull, at the cost of double-counting in portfolio audits.

Resilience firstHedge via exit

Cross-side bridge

one AI-side, one world-side

One acts on the model, the other on institutions or culture. The bridge hedges against both artefact-level and substrate-level failure.

Alignment first

Same-side diversification

same side, different lever

Both act on the same side (AI or world) but pull distinct levers. They cover several failure modes on that side while leaving the other side uncovered.

Governance first

Axis position

What the strategy acts onNon-preventive

Coercion levelConsent

Actor in controlHumans as principals

Time horizonHorizon-neutral

Legitimacy sourceMixed

Source note: Portfolio hedge strategy.md