Speed ↓ · market economic

Energy choke point

Frontier AI is energy-limited; grid regulators, interconnect queues, and tariff structure bind training pace without new AI-specific authority.

Mechanism

Use energy regulators (FERC, state PUCs, grid operators) to constrain frontier training via queue priority, reliability obligations, and environmental review.

Falsification signal

Efficiency gains outpace regulatory tightening.

A strategy held without a falsification signal is not strategy; it is affiliation. Continued support after this signal lands is identity, not bet. See the identity diagnostic.

Coordinates

Primary leverSpeed (Slow)

Acts onmarket economic

Coercionstate coercion

Actor in controlhumans

Time horizonpre transition

Legitimacy sourcestate

Conflicts, grouped by mechanism

Lever opposition

same lever, opposite pull

The pair's primary lever is the same; they pull it in opposite directions. A portfolio containing both is internally incoherent on that lever.

AccelerationRace to aligned superintelligence

Complements, grouped by mechanism

Same phase, different layer

same stage, distinct levers

Both are active in the same phase of the transition but act on different layers (model vs institution vs culture). They cover different failure modes inside the same window.

Governance firstData governance firstCapability ceiling

Same-lever reinforce

same lever, same pull, different mechanism

Both strategies pull the same lever in the same direction by different means. They stack: doing both amplifies the pull, at the cost of double-counting in portfolio audits.

Compute governance

Same-lever twins

Both use the same lever in the same direction. Usually redundant inside a portfolio: each dollar or effort unit only buys one lever pull, even if two strategies are named.

Bureaucratic slowdowntwinPausetwinSabotagetwin

Axis position

What the strategy acts onMarket / economic

Coercion levelState coercion

Actor in controlHumans as principals

Time horizonPre-transition

Legitimacy sourceState

Source note: Energy choke point strategy.md