Speed ↓ · speed timing
Sabotage
Governance has not produced meaningful constraint and direct action against hostile labs has a non-zero historical base rate of producing slowdown.
Mechanism
Disable frontier AI development via litigation campaigns, physical action against datacentres, or cyber operations outside governance.
Falsification signal
No credible actor attempts the path; strategy was correctly assessed as non-viable.
A strategy held without a falsification signal is not strategy; it is affiliation. Continued support after this signal lands is identity, not bet. See the identity diagnostic.
Self-undermining threshold
overshoot riskWhen visibly pursued.
Consolidates state protection around labs, accelerating the alliance the strategy was meant to break.
Every strategy has a stable region where it reinforces itself and an unstable region where pursuit defeats it. The threshold between them is usually narrower than advocates acknowledge.
Load-bearing commitments
Worldview positions this strategy quietly assumes. If the claim fails empirically or philosophically, the strategy loses its target or its premise.
Formal authority should not bind in extremis, moral urgency trumps legality.
Fails if: If moral urgency is contested, sabotage is simply violence by a losing faction.
Coordinates
Conflicts, grouped by mechanism
2Lever opposition
same lever, opposite pullThe pair's primary lever is the same; they pull it in opposite directions. A portfolio containing both is internally incoherent on that lever.
Complements, grouped by mechanism
0No explicit complements catalogued.
Same-lever twins
4Both use the same lever in the same direction. Usually redundant inside a portfolio: each dollar or effort unit only buys one lever pull, even if two strategies are named.
Axis position
Source note: Sabotage strategy.md