mixed lever
Speed
How fast frontier capability advances.
Conflict surface
This lever has strategies pulling in both directions. Any portfolio that includes one of each is in tension; the combination cannot be honestly pursued simultaneously.
↑ Accelerate
Acceleration
Speed ↑Speed of capability itself is the safety lever; alignment improves with compute, defence compounds with offence, and wealth funds resilience.
Race to aligned superintelligence
Speed ↑Alignment is solvable in the window and a single aligned superintelligence in a legitimate state's hands beats the counterfactual of coordination failure.
↓ Slow
Bureaucratic slowdown
Speed ↓Time itself is safety and procedural gates produce time in ways substantive regulation cannot, while also generating audit trails.
Compute governance
Speed ↓The compute supply chain is a stable chokepoint and state coordination on licensing, export controls, and reporting thresholds can govern capability indirectly.
Energy choke point
Speed ↓Frontier AI is energy-limited; grid regulators, interconnect queues, and tariff structure bind training pace without new AI-specific authority.
Pause
Speed ↓Time is the binding constraint: alignment and governance can catch up if frontier training halts above some capability threshold.
Sabotage
Speed ↓Governance has not produced meaningful constraint and direct action against hostile labs has a non-zero historical base rate of producing slowdown.