Substrate ↓ · market economic

Data governance first

Capability rises with data before it rises with compute; data sits upstream of training with existing legal apparatus (copyright, privacy, contract).

Mechanism

Use GDPR, CCPA, copyright cases, and generative AI regulation to treat training data supply as the binding lever.

Falsification signal

Frontier capability is reached with synthetic data.

A strategy held without a falsification signal is not strategy; it is affiliation. Continued support after this signal lands is identity, not bet. See the identity diagnostic.

Historical analogue

Biotechnology · Sequence screening

Every strategy inherits a plausible ceiling from its precedent. The analogue conditions the realistic reach.

Produced

Voluntary screening by major synthesis providers.

Did not produce

Coverage incomplete; bypass via smaller providers or decentralised synthesis.

Coordinates

Primary leverSubstrate (Release)

Acts onmarket economic

Coercionstate coercion

Actor in controlhumans

Time horizonpre transition

Legitimacy sourcestate

Conflicts, grouped by mechanism

No strict conflicts catalogued. This strategy pulls a lever that nothing else pulls in the opposite direction.

Complements, grouped by mechanism

Same phase, different layer

same stage, distinct levers

Both are active in the same phase of the transition but act on different layers (model vs institution vs culture). They cover different failure modes inside the same window.

Compute governanceEnergy choke pointGovernance first

Same-side diversification

same side, different lever

Both act on the same side (AI or world) but pull distinct levers. They cover several failure modes on that side while leaving the other side uncovered.

Liability driven safety

Axis position

What the strategy acts onMarket / economic

Coercion levelState coercion

Actor in controlHumans as principals

Time horizonPre-transition

Legitimacy sourceState

Source note: Data governance first strategy.md