mixed lever
Concentration
How many actors build frontier AI.
Conflict surface
This lever has strategies pulling in both directions. Any portfolio that includes one of each is in tension; the combination cannot be honestly pursued simultaneously.
↑ Concentrate
Centralised AI project
Concentration ↑Merging frontier development into one state-funded project reduces failure modes and absorbs race pressure by being the only game.
Military primacy
Concentration ↑Strategic competition between states dominates AI development; the state with the most capable AI is best positioned to secure safety and impose constraints on others.
Public AI
Concentration ↑Private ownership of frontier AI concentrates decision authority incompatibly with the technology's distributional stakes; public ownership aligns incentives with broad welfare.
↓ Distribute
Antitrust primacy
Concentration ↓Power concentration is the binding constraint and is visible under current competition law; preventing decisive advantage preserves the option space every strategy depends on.
Coup prevention first
Concentration ↓One actor using AI to seize durable decision authority beyond democratic reversibility is the terminal failure; every other decision routes through whether it reduces that risk.
Distributed builders
Concentration ↓No single failure mode wins if capability is distributed across many independent actors, and concentration risk exceeds diffusion risk.
Multipolarity
Concentration ↓Stable equilibrium among several roughly equal AI powers is safer than single dominance or uncoordinated chaos, producing restraint through mutual capability awareness.
Sovereign wealth
Concentration ↓Concentration of AI surplus, not AI capability, is the binding failure mode; broad ownership dissolves the political instability driving other strategies.