Concentration ↓ · institutional

Coup prevention first

One actor using AI to seize durable decision authority beyond democratic reversibility is the terminal failure; every other decision routes through whether it reduces that risk.

Mechanism

Design institutional and structural brakes specifically against AI-enabled power grabs by single actors.

Falsification signal

An undetected coup crosses the threshold, the detection regime does not currently exist.

A strategy held without a falsification signal is not strategy; it is affiliation. Continued support after this signal lands is identity, not bet. See the identity diagnostic.

Addresses 2 failure scenarios

all scenarios →

Single actor decisive advantage Autocratic consolidation via AI surveillance

Coordinates

Primary leverConcentration (Distribute)

Acts oninstitutional

Coercionstate coercion

Actor in controlhumans

Time horizonpre transition

Legitimacy sourcedemocratic

Conflicts, grouped by mechanism

Lever opposition

same lever, opposite pull

The pair's primary lever is the same; they pull it in opposite directions. A portfolio containing both is internally incoherent on that lever.

Centralised AI projectMilitary primacy

Complements, grouped by mechanism

Same phase, different layer

same stage, distinct levers

Both are active in the same phase of the transition but act on different layers (model vs institution vs culture). They cover different failure modes inside the same window.

Legitimacy firstDemocratic mandate

Same-lever reinforce

same lever, same pull, different mechanism

Both strategies pull the same lever in the same direction by different means. They stack: doing both amplifies the pull, at the cost of double-counting in portfolio audits.

Sovereign wealthDistributed builders

Same-side diversification

same side, different lever

Both act on the same side (AI or world) but pull distinct levers. They cover several failure modes on that side while leaving the other side uncovered.

Irreducible human authority

Same-lever twins

Both use the same lever in the same direction. Usually redundant inside a portfolio: each dollar or effort unit only buys one lever pull, even if two strategies are named.

Antitrust primacytwinMultipolaritytwin

Axis position

What the strategy acts onInstitutional

Coercion levelState coercion

Actor in controlHumans as principals

Time horizonPre-transition

Legitimacy sourceDemocratic

Source note: Coup prevention first strategy.md