Concentration ↓ · market economic

Sovereign wealth

Concentration of AI surplus, not AI capability, is the binding failure mode; broad ownership dissolves the political instability driving other strategies.

Mechanism

Socialise the gains from AI via sovereign wealth fund, universal compute dividend, or equivalent redistribution of AI economic surplus.

Falsification signal

Captured surplus leaves political concentration unchanged (Alaska PFD analogue).

A strategy held without a falsification signal is not strategy; it is affiliation. Continued support after this signal lands is identity, not bet. See the identity diagnostic.

Historical analogue

Climate · Climate finance / Green Climate Fund

Every strategy inherits a plausible ceiling from its precedent. The analogue conditions the realistic reach.

Produced

Rising visibility; pledged funds for adaptation.

Did not produce

Delivery lags pledges; adaptation finance remains inadequate.

Addresses 1 failure scenario

all scenarios →

Single actor decisive advantage

Coordinates

Primary leverConcentration (Distribute)

Acts onmarket economic

Coercionstate coercion

Actor in controlhumans

Time horizonhorizon neutral

Legitimacy sourcedemocratic

Conflicts, grouped by mechanism

No strict conflicts catalogued. This strategy pulls a lever that nothing else pulls in the opposite direction.

Complements, grouped by mechanism

Same-lever reinforce

same lever, same pull, different mechanism

Both strategies pull the same lever in the same direction by different means. They stack: doing both amplifies the pull, at the cost of double-counting in portfolio audits.

Distributed buildersCoup prevention firstAntitrust primacy

Same-side diversification

same side, different lever

Both act on the same side (AI or world) but pull distinct levers. They cover several failure modes on that side while leaving the other side uncovered.

Public AI

Shared authority

same legitimacy source

Different levers, same legitimacy source (democratic, state, technical, market). The pair hangs together under one kind of authority; it stands or falls with that authority.

Democratic mandate

Same-lever twins

Both use the same lever in the same direction. Usually redundant inside a portfolio: each dollar or effort unit only buys one lever pull, even if two strategies are named.

Multipolaritytwin

Axis position

What the strategy acts onMarket / economic

Coercion levelState coercion

Actor in controlHumans as principals

Time horizonHorizon-neutral

Legitimacy sourceDemocratic

Source note: Sovereign wealth strategy.md