AGI Strategies

timelines

Every AGI timeline on the record.

What counts as AGI varies. So does what the person was predicting: 50% confidence, first plausibility, or definitional passage of a specific test. Each claim below is paired with a dated source so you can judge in context.

distribution · latest forecast per person

n 10median 2029
  • By 2027
    2
  • 2028–2030
    4
  • 2031–2040
    4
  • 2041–2060
    0
  • Beyond 2060
    0

Each forecaster shown once, using their most recent dated claim. Below, every claim is listed individually, including revisions.

By 2027

2
  • Dario Amodei

    Dario Amodei

    2026

    milestonePowerful AI (Anthropic's internal term for transformative AI)

    CEO of Anthropic; 'Machines of Loving Grace' author

    2024-10-11Machines of Loving Grace · darioamodei.com

  • Leopold Aschenbrenner

    Leopold Aschenbrenner

    2027p=50%

    milestoneAGI

    Author of 'Situational Awareness'; former OpenAI Superalignment team

    2024-06Situational Awareness · For Our Posterity

2028–2030

4
  • Shane Legg

    Shane Legg

    2028p=50%

    milestoneHuman-level AGI (50% confidence)

    Google DeepMind co-founder; chief AGI scientist

    2023-10-26Shane Legg (DeepMind Founder), 2028 AGI · Dwarkesh Patel Podcast

  • Dwarkesh Patel

    Dwarkesh Patel

    2029p=25%

    milestoneAGI (25th percentile)

    Dwarkesh Podcast host; AI progress commentator

    2023Dwarkesh Podcast · Dwarkesh Podcast

  • Jensen Huang

    Jensen Huang

    2029p=50%

    milestoneNarrowly defined AGI (bar exam, logic tests)

    CEO of NVIDIA; supplier of the frontier AI compute stack

    2024-03-19Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang AGI 5 years quote · TechCrunch

  • Ray Kurzweil

    Ray Kurzweil

    2029

    milestoneHuman-level AGI

    Futurist; The Singularity Is Near (1948–)

    2005Ray Kurzweil predictions · Wikipedia

2031–2040

4
  • Matthew Barnett

    Matthew Barnett

    2033p=50%

    milestoneTransformative AI (median estimate via direct approach)

    Epoch AI forecaster; Metaculus AI timelines

    2025-01Matthew Barnett Metaculus model · Metaculus

  • Masayoshi Son

    Masayoshi Son

    2035

    milestoneArtificial Superintelligence

    SoftBank CEO; major AI investor

    2024-06-21Masayoshi Son ASI prediction · SoftBank

  • Yoshua Bengio

    Yoshua Bengio

    2028–2043

    milestoneHuman-level AI

    Turing Award laureate; scientific chair of the International AI Safety Report

    2023-07-25My testimony in front of the U.S. Senate · US Senate

  • Ajeya Cotra

    2040p=50%

    milestoneTransformative AI

    Open Philanthropy researcher; 'biological anchors' forecaster

    2022-08-02Two-year update on my personal AI timelines · AI Alignment Forum

2041–2060

1
  • Ray Kurzweil

    Ray Kurzweil

    2045

    milestoneSingularity (human-machine merger)

    Futurist; The Singularity Is Near (1948–)

    2005The Singularity Is Near · Viking