person
Matthew Barnett
Epoch AI forecaster; Metaculus AI timelines
AI forecaster at Epoch AI who co-authors many of the most-cited Metaculus AI questions, including the Transformative AI Date question.
current Researcher, Epoch AI
Timelines
Transformative AI (median estimate via direct approach) by 2033p=50%
stated 2025-01
Matthew Barnett Metaculus model · Metaculus
Strategy positions
Existential primacymixed
Extinction/disempowerment risk overrides ordinary cost-benefitContributes systematic forecasts of AI progress; agnostic on subjective x-risk claims but grounded in quantitative timelines.
It's unclear what human-level AGI means. The more useful question is when real economic growth rates reach at least 30% worldwide.
Closest strategy neighbours
by jaccard overlapOther people whose strategy tags overlap with Matthew Barnett's. Overlap is on tag identity, not stance; opposites can show up if they reference the same tags.
Record last updated 2026-04-25.