person
Clay Graubard
Forecaster; RAND and Good Judgment contributor
Superforecaster who has contributed to AI and x-risk forecasting exercises. Represents the professional-forecaster wing of the AI risk community.
current Superforecaster, Good Judgment
Strategy positions
Existential primacymixed
Extinction/disempowerment risk overrides ordinary cost-benefitRepresents measured forecasting-grade views on x-risk; rarely takes strong partisan positions.
Forecasting AI extinction risk under Knightian uncertainty is a different exercise from forecasting under well-defined base rates.
Closest strategy neighbours
by jaccard overlapOther people whose strategy tags overlap with Clay Graubard's. Overlap is on tag identity, not stance; opposites can show up if they reference the same tags.
Record last updated 2026-04-25.