person
Katja Grace
Lead researcher at AI Impacts
Runs AI Impacts, the body that runs periodic surveys of AI researcher opinion on timelines and risk. The results of these surveys are the single most cited data point for 'what AI researchers actually think'.
Profile
expertise
Policy / meta
Specialises in AI policy, regulation, governance, philanthropy, or movement strategy. Reads the technical literature but does not produce it.
AI Impacts founder. Runs the influential 'Expert Survey on AI' (timelines/p(doom) source for many citations). Forecaster; not a technical researcher.
recognition
Established
Reliable, recognised voice within their specific subfield. Cited and invited but not central to general AI discourse.
Survey is widely cited; her own profile is moderate.
vintage
Pre-deep-learning
Active before AlexNet. The existential-risk frame matures (FHI, OpenPhil, EA). Public AI commentary still rare; deep learning not yet dominant.
AI Impacts founded 2014 (MIRI seed). The AI Expert Survey methodology is set in the pre-deep-learning x-risk frame.
Hand-classified. See the board for the criteria and the full grid.
Strategy positions
Existential primacyendorses
Extinction/disempowerment risk overrides ordinary cost-benefitHas publicly argued that even conservative survey estimates put AI extinction probability above 5%, high enough for serious action.
The median respondent gave a 5% chance of AI causing an outcome as bad as human extinction. Five percent is not a reassuring number.
Closest strategy neighbours
by jaccard overlapOther people whose strategy tags overlap with Katja Grace's. Overlap is on tag identity, not stance; opposites can show up if they reference the same tags.
Record last updated 2026-04-24.