person
Eli Lifland
Forecaster; co-author of AI 2027
Competitive superforecaster who has written influential scenario work on AI takeover dynamics. Co-authored AI 2027 with Daniel Kokotajlo and others.
Profile
expertise
Policy / meta
Specialises in AI policy, regulation, governance, philanthropy, or movement strategy. Reads the technical literature but does not produce it.
Forecaster (Samotsvety). Co-author of 'AI 2027' scenario. Forecasting and superforecasting; not a technical researcher.
recognition
Established
Reliable, recognised voice within their specific subfield. Cited and invited but not central to general AI discourse.
Recognised in forecasting/safety communities; lower public profile.
vintage
Post-ChatGPT
Entered the AI strategy debate in or after 2023. ChatGPT was already public when their voice became influential. Often shaped by Pause letter, AISIs, AI 2027.
AI Futures Project; AI 2027 co-author 2025. His load-bearing AI work is post-ChatGPT forecasting.
Hand-classified. See the board for the criteria and the full grid.
p(doom)
- 35%2023
Eli Lifland on navigating the AI alignment landscape · EA Forum
Strategy positions
Existential primacyendorses
Extinction/disempowerment risk overrides ordinary cost-benefitPublicly reports a ~35% p(doom) and works on detailed AI scenarios.
My p(doom) is around 35%.
Closest strategy neighbours
by jaccard overlapOther people whose strategy tags overlap with Eli Lifland's. Overlap is on tag identity, not stance; opposites can show up if they reference the same tags.
Record last updated 2026-04-24.